The Shadow Trend Report in Spirits—Street Sheet #14
By John Henry and Punxsutawney Phil

We survived another January. Including those post holiday credit card bills. Enough of the resolution nonsense. Let’s face it, if you don’t do something daily, well then you just ain’t doing it. So as sure as it is chilliest before dawn and the sun rises in the east, I figured it was time to reflect a little from the shivering street.
Let’s assess a few trends past, present and future. Some may induce déjà vu and even cause a shadow from the past to project on the future.
For that reason, I dub this the Punxsutawney Phil Shadow Trend Report. Here’s a fresh Groundhog’s Day morning baker’s dozen (plus one for the shadow):
Line extensions are petering out.
We may look back and realize it was Cookie Dough flavored vodka that broke the buyer’s back. Or not. Wondering- Is a jelly donut flavored vodka far behind? Savvy buyers will start cutting back on extended items. They’ll begin actively curating their spirits collections. Especially white goods. To curate is survive. Even thrive.
Mentoring is the new process to market.
Smart folks like Julie Reiner have been doing it for years. You mentor for the long haul. The old apprentice system actually works. Ambassadors, especially those who unfortunately float from brand to brand, take note.
Quality brown spirits will return to their respected mainstream helm.
It is already a mixed drink with those wood goodies in there. Barrel aged from day one if the color is authentic. Coming up behind them, the flavor-rich white goods, like quality agricole rhums and spicy agave spirits, will thrive as the next wave of drinkers’ palates mature.
There will be a full shakeout in craft spirits as there was in the first wave of craft breweries a few decades back.
Putting out a marginal product in a cool little boutique bottle won’t cut it anymore. Better locally produced spirits at sweet spot price points (like $19.99 retail per liter) will re-emerge and dominate local business. Local distillery pubs offering farm to table food to accompany farm to table spirits will become the trend. Tito, you were a visionary. And I will personally ride my bike down to Austin and kick your ass if you even think about launching a flavor. Plus, I will charge you for the service.
A Fourth Tier will emerge for craft spirits.
This will make it easier for them to bypass the big guys and the stranglehold of local distributors’ ignorance and arrogance. Craft spirits will cast its own strong, organically built natural shadow.
Box stores will sell limited SKUS and dominate their sales.
A savvy off-premise retailer will learn, and again master, the craft of the hand sell on items those big
20, 000+ sq ft guys and supermarkets simply don’t carry. And probably make margin on same for doing so.
On Premise: Building bonds with customers is the new paradigm for Read the full article here »





























